Rugby Union World Cup, 2011, Pools Draw

Who Are the Likely World Cup Quarter Finalists?

May 24, 2009

The draw for the pools section of the Rugby World Cup determines which teams will meet in the quarter finals, and is of particular importance to the less favoured teams.

The World Cup winner is likely to be one of the so-called “big-five” teams: Australia, New Zealand, France, South Africa, and England. Currently France and England are both ranked uncharacteristically low on the International Rugby Board (IRB) rankings (France 5, England 8), but their traditional strength is likely to reassert itself at the tournament.

Teams with an outside chance include Ireland, Scotland, Wales, and Argentina, while the pacific nations of Fiji, Samoa, and Tonga have improved to the point of being able to cause an upset as Fiji did in 2007 when it beat Wales.

With 20 teams in four pools, and two teams qualifying from each pool, at least four of the teams mentioned above must miss out.

Rugby Union World Cup Draw Pool A

In pool A the three top teams are New Zealand, France, and Tonga, with New Zealand and France clear favourites. Nevertheless, Tonga can take consolation from the fact that France is one of the most unpredictable of teams, capable one week of pulling off a major upset, and of playing wretchedly the next. Still, France’s tendency to rise to the big occasion is likely to see it prevail.

Rugby Union World Cup Draw Pool B

Pool B is one of the two most unpredictable of the four pools with Argentina, England, and Scotland all having a chance to progress. On current form, Argentina is the top-ranked team of the group, but England’s traditional strength (Along with Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand it is one of the four teams to have previously won the cup) is likely to see it through. Scotland’s recent form makes it the least favoured of the three but Scotland too has a proud rugby tradition and a good record at previous cups.

Argentina is a team that has gradually worked its way up the rugby ladder to the point where it can rightly claim to be a “top-tier” team that has a chance of winning against the very best. Currently at number five on the IRB ranking list (New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, and Ireland respectively are the top four) the 2011 World Cup is an opportunity for Argentina to demonstrate that its ranking and recent successes are no flash-in-the-pan.

Pool C is one of the most clear-cut with Australia and Ireland being near certainties to qualify. Italy has improved in recent years but is not expected to cause an upset.

Current World Champion South Africa is a near certainty to qualify from this pool, with Wales and Fiji expected to fight out the second place. Fiji caused an upset in the 2007 cup by eliminating Wales, and is another of the former “minnows” that is now capable of holding its own with top-tier teams.

Upsets Likely in Rugby World Cup 2011

While it is hard to imagine a team outside of the so-called “top-five” teams winning the cup, there is no doubt a number of the supposedly lesser rugby nations have made and are continuing to make significant progress since the first Rugby Union Word Cup in 1987.

Events such as Argentina’s winning its pool in 2007, thereby forcing an early playoff between two of the more favoured teams (France and New Zealand), and the upset victory by Fiji over Wales could well reoccur in 2011 throwing predictions (and team plans) into turmoil.

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